Predictive Modelling of Lactobacillus casei KN291 Survival in Fermented Soy Beverage

Zieli&#; Koło&#; Goryl Antoni; Ilona Motyl

doi:10.1007/s12275-014-3045-0

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Predictive Modelling of Lactobacillus casei KN291 Survival in Fermented Soy Beverage: Zieli&# ^{324;ska Dorota1}, Koło&# ^{380;yn-Krajewsk}, Goryl Antoni ², Ilona Motyl ³; Journal of Microbiology 2014;52(2):169-178.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12275-014-3045-0
Published online: February 1, 2014

¹Department of Food Gastronomy and Food Hygiene, Faculty of Human Nutrition and Consumer Sciences, Warsaw University of Life Sciences – SGGW, ul. Nowoursynowska 159c, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland, ²Department of Econometrics and Operational Research, Cracow University of Economics ul. Rakowicka 27, 31-510 Cracow, Poland, ³Institute of Fermentation Technology and Microbiology, Technical University in Łódź, ul. Wólczańska 171/173, Poland¹Department of Food Gastronomy and Food Hygiene, Faculty of Human Nutrition and Consumer Sciences, Warsaw University of Life Sciences – SGGW, ul. Nowoursynowska 159c, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland, ²Department of Econometrics and Operational Research, Cracow University of Economics ul. Rakowicka 27, 31-510 Cracow, Poland, ³Institute of Fermentation Technology and Microbiology, Technical University in Łódź, ul. Wólczańska 171/173, Poland

Corresponding author: Zieli&# , Tel: +48-0-225937068,

Received: 21 January 2013 • Revised: 18 July 2013 • Accepted: 19 August 2013

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Abstract

The aim of the study was to construct and verify predictive growth and survival models of a potentially probiotic bacteria in fermented soy beverage. The research material included natural soy beverage (Polgrunt, Poland) and the strain of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) – Lactobacillus casei KN291. To construct predictive models for the growth and survival of L. casei KN291 bacteria in the fermented soy beverage we design an experiment which allowed the collection of CFU data. Fermented soy beverage samples were stored at various temperature conditions (5, 10, 15, and 20°C) for 28 days. On the basis of obtained data concerning the survival of L. casei KN291 bacteria in soy beverage at different temperature and time conditions, two non-linear models (r2= 0.68–0.93) and two surface models (r2=0.76–0.79) were constructed; these models described the behaviour of the bacteria in the product to a satisfactory extent. Verification of the surface models was carried out utilizing the validation data - at 7°C during 28 days. It was found that applied models were well fitted and charged with small systematic errors, which is evidenced by accuracy factor - Af, bias factor - Bf and mean squared error - MSE. The constructed microbiological growth and survival models of L. casei KN291 in fermented soy beverage enable the estimation of products shelf life period, which in this case is defined by the requirement for the level of the bacteria to be above 106 CFU/cm3. The constructed models may be useful as a tool for the manufacture of probiotic foods to estimate of their shelf life period.

Keywords: probiotic bacteria;predictive model;validation

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Predictive Modelling of Lactobacillus casei KN291 Survival in Fermented Soy Beverage

J. Microbiol. 2014;52(2):169-178. Published online February 1, 2014

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12275-014-3045-0

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